• Infection Control

  Filling middle seats on airplanes doubles the risk of catching COVID-19

  Posted by Nigel Brown on 20 July 2020 at 7:55 am

  In a study by MIT, it shows that filling the middle seats on airplanes doubles the risk of catching Covid-19.

  While the risk remains relatively low, partly thanks to the air circulation and filters on most airplanes, the statistical model shows that the risk is significantly lower when middle seats are left empty.

  The study comes as some airlines in America such as American Airlines and United face criticism for filling planes, other major airlines like Delta and Southwest are leaving middle seats open.

  As many airlines begin filling their middle seats and ending the era of social distancing on flights, a new research paper from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is raising questions about the risks associated with packing planes full of people.

  According to the statistical model compiled by Arnold Barnett, a management science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the risk of dying from COVID-19 as a direct result of flying is higher than the risk of dying in a plane crash.

  The paper, which has not yet been peer reviewed, is titled “COVID-19 risk among airline passengers: Should the middle seat stay empty?”

  According to the paper, the risks are fairly low, in the grand scheme of things. However, they’re still present, and there’s a significant difference between the chances of catching the disease if the middle seats are blocked or filled.

  The chance of contracting COVID-19 as a passenger on a full flight is just 1 in 4,300, Barnett wrote, compared to 1 in 7,700 on a flight with empty middle seats. Factoring in a 1% mortality rate, the risk of dying from COVID-19 contracted on a full flight is 1 in 430,000, while on a flight with blocked middle seats it’s just 1 in 770,000.

  While that’s low, it’s significantly higher than the likelihood of dying in a plane crash, which is roughly 1 in 34 million.

  The analysis, Barnett wrote, is admittedly “rough,” and is heavily based on statistics and figures published in a large meta-analysis in the journal The Lancet. It looked at infection rates of travelers coming from different parts of the US, estimated mitigation effects of mask wearing, and the distance between people in a row.

  It also factored in various mitigation efforts the airlines are taking, like disinfection of surfaces, and the use of High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters, along with air-circulation patterns on aircraft, and the fact that seat backs create an effective barrier between rows.

  If 600,000 Americans flew on a given day, the model suggests that about 140 would contract COVID-19 during a flight, assuming everyone wore a mask for the entire flight, if middle seats are filled. With middle seats left open, the number falls to about 78.

  Ultimately, Barnett said, the key takeaway of his paper is that there’s a safety difference between a full and an empty middle seat.

  “There’s a difference, it’s measurable, and whether or not it’s a large difference depends on one’s perspective.”

  

  Nigel Brown replied 4 years, 2 months ago 1 Member · 0 Replies
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